The Crypto Minute

⤵️ Today’s Agenda:

• We found a Polymarket degen with an 80% win rate over 490 trades!

• Digital euro is moving closer, but the real fight is how much “cash-like” privacy Europe will allow without breaking AML rules.

• Bitcoin’s post-halving year ended red, which puts the old 4-year cycle narrative on trial going into 2026.

• Tether just became the 5th biggest $BTC holder, doubling down on the corporate Bitcoin arms race and reserve debate. 

• Our 2026 playbook focuses on three themes:$BTC as macro, stablecoin rails, and tokenized RWAs, plus a quick Solana DeFi pulse check.

• And more…

📰 News Recap (Jan 29 to Jan 4)

Digital Euro Creeping Closer As EU Fights Over Privacy 🏦

👉 The digital euro just got backing from the EU Council, supporting the ECB’s design with both online and offline payments on the table.

The biggest fight is privacy. 🕵️ Lawmakers want “cash-like” privacy, while the ECB and Council push for strict AML and traceability, so both sides will have to meet somewhere in the middle. ⚖️

Some parts already have broad support: legal tender status, an offline mode, and stronger privacy and inclusion than regular bank money. 🔎

Now, the open questions are how private the online version can be, how far merchant acceptance rules go, and where to cap holdings so deposits do not flee banks overnight. 🔐

In the background is the global CBDC and stablecoin race. 🏎️ Europe wants a digital euro that keeps the euro relevant without blowing a hole in its banking system, and if the legal work slips past 2026, the ECB’s pilot and rollout timeline starts to crack. ⏰

$BTC Breaks 4 Year Halving Script, Ends Post Halving Year In Red 📉

Bitcoin just closed 2025 lower than it started the year, the first time a post halving year has finished in the red. 📉 It is still down more than 30% from the $126,080 all time high set on October 6.

In past cycles it was simple. 💡 Halving, then next year new highs. 2013, 2017 and 2021 all fit that four year playbook, which is why everyone treated it like a cheat code.

This time, commentators like Vivek Sen are calling the four year cycle “officially dead.” 🪦 Others point to new players like ETFs, institutions and corporate treasuries that do not trade like hype driven retail. 🧱

The idea is that $BTC trades macro now. Liquidity, rates, regulation and geopolitics matter more than a clean halving calendar. 👉 The halving still tightens supply, but miners have more financing options and price reactions are less automatic.

🔎 If you are still trading on memes of the four year cycle, you are probably late. The smarter angle is to watch liquidity, ETF flows and macro, with the halving as just one input instead of the whole thesis. 🧠

Tether Is Now The 5th Biggest Bitcoin Holder On Earth 🐳

Tether closed out 2025 by buying another 8,888 $BTC on New Year’s Eve. 😆 This took its stash to more than 96,000 $BTC and making it the 5th biggest Bitcoin holder in the world. 📈

The company has been routing up to 15% of its profits into Bitcoin every quarter, and this latest batch was worth around $780M at entry. 📊 That puts Tether behind only Binance, Robinhood and Bitfinex on the rich list and second among private corporate treasuries.

👉 Fun fact: It is not just Bitcoin either. Tether grabbed 26 tons of gold in Q3 2025 and now sits on about 116 tons. 👈

🏦 That has ratings agencies twitchy. S&P cut $USDT’s score to “weak,” and people like Arthur Hayes keep poking at the growing $BTC plus gold mix in reserves. 🪙 In plain English, it signals higher perceived risk around Tether’s backing, which could amplify panic in a real market stress. ⚠️

On-chain, the $BTC balance has moved around. 🚛 Some coins went to Tether backed XXI, which holds over 43,000 $BTC, while new corporates keep piling in. Metaplanet is now above 35,000 $BTC and Strategy pushed its stack past 670,000, turning the corporate Bitcoin land grab into a full on arms race. 🚀

Alpha Leak 👉 Solana DeFi Tokens

Solana DeFi is still noisy. DEX volume is around $24B over 7d, while perps volume is about $864M a day. 👀

🔎 Even whales are loading up: three wallets pulled about $15.9M in Solana DeFi tokens, mostly $PUMP ($13.77M) plus $CLOUD, $KMNO, $JTO, and $DRIFT. 🚀

Why are those projects picking up steam? 👉 Blocks are cheap and fast, so you can move size or test random stuff without getting chopped up by fees.

For teams, Solana DeFi is just core infrastructure and liquidity. 🫗 For traders, it is the main place where new narratives, token launches, and the occasional blow up usually appear first, so they watch how volume rotates between perps, LSTs, lending markets, and meme coins. 📈

Is Solana DeFi taking off again? Check the projects listed below. 👇

• Pump.fun ($PUMP)

• Sanctum ($CLOUD)

• Kamino Finance ($KMNO)

• Jito ($JTO)

• Drift Protocol ($DRIFT)

Scam Alert ⚠️ Wallet Drainer Airdrops

Wallet drainer airdrops look like free money. You click a “claim” link, connect your wallet, sign a couple of weird txs… and your tokens are gone. 🪦 RIP.

The bait is usually “exclusive airdrop”, “compensation”, or “early access” for some hyped token. 🤓

Links show up in DMs, in fake support chats, or on clone sites that look almost identical to the real thing. 🕵️ You might have received some messages on Telegram already.

On-chain, the trick is simple. 🔎 You are not just claiming tokens, you are signing approvals that let a drainer contract move your whole balance, not only the new airdrop. One click can grant access to every asset that wallet holds. 🙃

⚠️ How to stay safe:

• Assume every random airdrop is hostile, not free money. 

• Never sign blind approvals or weird txs you don’t fully understand.

• Always double-check the URL and domain before connecting your wallet.

• Use a fresh wallet instead of your main stack for experiments.

• If you wouldn’t buy that token yourself, ignore the airdrop too.