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The Crypto Minute
Your Weekly Guide to Surviving the Crypto Rollercoaster.
Jiří Makovský & CoinBrain
October 20, 2025 • Reading Time: 10 minutes
Mt. Gox, the first major incident that exposed how weak crypto security can be, will soon make its final payout. 💸 This huge red stain on the industry might finally be gone for good! 🎯
We’ll look into Democrats blocking new crypto regulation, Polymarket’s bearish bet on Bitcoin prices, the UK tightening its grip on crypto investors, and much more! 🔍
⤵️ Today’s Agenda:
MicroStrategy expands its Bitcoin reserves as institutional accumulation remains strong.
Polymarket traders turn cautious, betting on Bitcoin falling below $100K before 2026.
UK tax authority tightens crypto oversight, sending 65K warning letters to investors.
US crypto bill hits gridlock as Democrats push tougher rules for DeFi protocols.
Mt. Gox repayments move forward, expected to have minimal impact on Bitcoin prices.
And more…
📊 Market Snapshot
| $107,449BTC−6.7% | $3,918.56ETH−5.8% | $3.64TCrypto Market Cap−0.3% | 27 (Fear)Fear & Greed Index−4 from last week |
📅 Crypto Events You don’t want to Miss
📌 Thursday, Oct 23rd:
US Average Hourly Earnings m/m: Indicates how the average hourly pay for US workers varies from the previous month.
US Non-Farm Employment Change: The monthly change in the number of employed people, excluding farmers
US Unemployment Rate: The percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and seeking work.
📌 Friday, Oct 24th:
US Core CPI m/m: The monthly change in consumer prices, excluding food and energy.
US CPI m/m: Shows how overall consumer prices changed compared to the previous month.
US CPI y/y: Tracks how overall consumer prices changed compared to the same month last year.
US Flash Manufacturing PMI: An early estimate of manufacturing sector activity based on surveys.
US Flash Services PMI: Estimate of activity in the services sector based on surveys.
🐋Smart Money Tracker
Monday, Oct 13th: A longtime Bitcoin whale just moved another $40M in $USDC to Hyperliquid, ramping up their short bet on $BTC.
Tuesday, Oct 14th: BlackRock moved big: 93,158 $ETH ($364M) and 704 $BTC ($77.67M) were sent straight to Coinbase Prime.
Wednesday, Oct 15th: James Wynn, the notorious high-leverage trader, got liquidated again!
Thursday, Oct 16th: Whale 0xc2a3, who earned $5.5M in 4 days, has flipped long! He opened a 5x long on 68.4 $BTC ($7.6M) and set limit orders to go long on $ETH too.
Friday, Oct 17th: Whale 0xebb4 sold 88,227 $AAVE ($19.89M) at an average of $225.47 in the last 8 hours, leaving just 3,129 $AAVE ($697K).
Saturday, Oct 18th: These hackers just panic-sold 7,816 $ETH ($29.14M) at $3,728 during the crash, burning another $3.37M in the process! Hackers maybe, traders not so much.
Source: Lookonchain
📰 News Recap (Oct 13 to 19)
Institutional accumulation continues 🏦
MicroStrategy (MSTR) is buying the dip again! 💰 The firm added 220 BTC this week at an average price of $123,561 per coin.
The purchase was funded through proceeds from its recent preferred stock sale. 💵 That’s roughly $27M poured back into Bitcoin despite last week’s volatility.
It’s another signal that institutions are far from done accumulating. 📈 Even in choppy markets, MicroStrategy keeps treating Bitcoin as a long-term treasury asset. 🧱
📊 Will bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? Polymarket thinks so.
Prediction markets are leaning bearish again. Traders on Polymarket are giving a 68% chance that Bitcoin will drop below $100,000 before the end of 2025. 😬
The market has seen nearly $1.9M in volume, showing strong participation as volatility returns. Many traders are positioning for a deeper correction, citing macro pressure and fading ETF inflows. 📉
With two months left in 2025, sentiment could flip fast if liquidity improves. 🔄
💼 The UK tax authority tightens crypto oversight
HMRC sent nearly 65,000 warning letters to crypto investors last year, more than double the previous count. 📬
🔎 The agency is cracking down on undeclared capital gains as crypto adoption surges across the UK.
These “nudge letters” ask investors to fix filings before probes begin. HMRC now tracks exchange data and will join the OECD’s global reporting network in 2026. 🌍
🏛 US Crypto Bill Stalls After Democrat Pushback
Senate talks on the crypto framework bill have paused after Democrats introduced a counterproposal tightening rules for DeFi, including a possible “restricted list” for risky protocols. ⚖️
👉 The move halted progress on the Responsible Financial Innovation Act, sparking partisan tension and backlash from the crypto industry.
Critics warn the proposal could push innovation offshore and stall regulatory clarity in the US. 🔒
🌍️ Story of the Week: Mt. Gox Finally Nears the End
More than ten years after its collapse, Mt. Gox is finally close to closing the book. The exchange still holds around 34,700 BTC, worth about $3.9B, which are set to be repaid by October 31. 📆
🔎 Mt. Gox was once the biggest Bitcoin exchange in the world before losing 650,000 BTC in a massive hack back in 2014.
Mt. Gox used to be one of the biggest crypto exchanges in the world. Then, when it was hacked, it imploded. Since then, many other exchanges have faced liquidity or security issues. Source: CoinMetrics
The recovery process has been painfully slow, with endless legal delays and trustee updates. 🐢
Trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi, known as the Tokyo Whale, sold thousands of coins in 2017 and 2018 to repay creditors.
👉 Those sales often lined up with major Bitcoin drops, which didn’t exactly help his reputation.
Mt. Gox Repayment Scheme Should Not Hurt Prices ✅
Since mid-2024, Mt. Gox wallets have been moving coins again as repayments resume. On-chain data shows steady activity, but so far no signs of large market sell-offs. 📊
Analysts say most creditors are long-term Bitcoin believers who aren’t planning to dump their coins. That’s good news for the market. Finally, one of the biggest crypto scandals can rest. 🧱
During the July 2024 Mt. Gox repayments, the negative effects were temporary, lasting only a few days. Source: TradingView
🔒 Major Token Unlocks of the Week
$SCR - 12.25% of the total supply will enter circulation on Oct 22, 2025.
$MBG - 6.26% of the total supply will enter circulation on Oct 22, 2025.
$AVAIL - 2.14% of the total supply will enter circulation on Oct 23, 2025.
$ALT - 1.95% of the total supply will enter circulation on Oct 25, 2025.
$MIRA - 1.27% of the total supply will enter circulation on Oct 26, 2025.
Explore more unlocks with full vesting details.
💡 1 Minute Learning: Intent Chains
Intent chains represent the next big evolution in how users interact with blockchains. 🔮
Instead of signing every step of a transaction, users simply express their intent, for example “swap ETH for USDC at the best rate”, and off-chain solvers compete to execute it in the most optimal way. 🧩
👉 This approach flips the traditional model of blockchain interaction. It shifts the focus from the process to the result, changing how users and applications interact with the network.
Rather than broadcasting a transaction and waiting for miners or validators to include it, intent systems prioritize the desired outcome and find the most efficient route to get there. 🚀
Notable Projects
🔎 Anoma, Essential, and Flashbots SUAVE are leading this shift, working on cross-chain coordination, MEV optimization, and privacy-preserving execution.
If successful, intent chains could make crypto UX seamless, where wallets no longer send transactions but goals, and the network does the rest. 🎯
🗞️ From our Blog
And that’s a wrap! 🎉 Enjoyed this newsletter? Forward it to a friend, and let them know they can subscribe here.
Got any ideas or feedback? We’d love to hear from you! Drop us an email at [email protected].
DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or make financial decisions. Always do your own research and stay safe out there.